The situation in the Northwest Pacific is not serious. Typhoon No. 9 ‘Saola’ occurred on the 24th, followed by Typhoon No. 10 ‘Damrei’ on the 25th, and yesterday (28th), Typhoon No. 11 ‘Haikui’. It is like three typhoons fluctuating at the same time in the Northwest Pacific. Although August is the most active month for typhoons, this is an uncommon situation.
Let’s go through each one.
■ Typhoons No. 9 and No. 10… Meteorological Administration “No significant impact”
First, Typhoon No. 9’Saola’ turned counterclockwise at a slow speed over the eastern Philippine Sea and headed northwest today (29th). It was predicted to pass through the southern seas of Taiwan in the future and land in southeastern China around the 2nd of next month. The appearance of walking in place without finding a clear power to move the typhoon is reminiscent of the slow typhoon ‘Kanun’ that landed on the Korean Peninsula on the 10th.
This typhoon will become stronger in the future and will develop into a ‘very strong’ typhoon accompanied by strong winds of around 45 meters per second maximum near the center tonight.No. 10 ‘Damrei’ in the picture below is passing through the southern seas of Japan, and it ispredicted that it will weaken into an extratropical cyclone tonight due to its weak power.
The Korea Meteorological Administration believes that both of these typhoons are “less likely to affect the Korean Peninsula.”
■ Typhoon No. 11 ‘Haikui’… Where is it going?
The problem is Typhoon No. 11 ‘Haikui’.
This typhoon is still in its early stages of occurrence Currently, the central air pressure is 996 hPa, and the maximum wind speed near the center is accompanied by strong winds of 20 meters per second.
It is predicted that the typhoon will continue to move northwest and pass through the southern sea of Okinawa, Japan on the 1st of next month, and on the 3rd of next month it will move north to the sea about 300 km southeast of Shanghai, China . However, the expected course of the typhoon is starting to head toward the Korean Peninsula a little more than the previous forecast, and the situation after that is bound to be worrying.
It is not an official announcement from the Korea Meteorological Administration, but there are hints. It is the prediction data of the forecasting model.
The figure above is an ensemble model that shows various scenarios, including KIM (Korean Numerical Forecasting Model), UM (United Kingdom Meteorological Agency Model), and ECMWF (European Medium-term Forecasting Center) , which are mainly used by Korea Meteorological Administration .
The darker the color, the more likely they are to match.
It can be seen that the predicted course of Typhoon No. 11 ‘Haikui’ is very wide from the southeast coast of China to the East Sea of Korea. However , it can be confirmed that there is a possibility of affecting the Korean Peninsula in any direction except for the direction of China . At present, it is highly volatile to predict the extent of this impact. The Korea Meteorological Administration predicted through today’s regular forecast briefing that it would be possible to make a more specific forecast on September 1, when it is possible to grasp the expected course with high accuracy of what the actual impact of this typhoon will be. ■ Typhoon indirect impact… The closer the typhoon gets to the Korean Peninsula, the more it will be affected indirectly. In the figure below, the area marked in orange is data that predicted the flow of water vapor, which is the material of rain clouds. Haiku is this Friday, around the 1st of next month ‘ mT
It is expected to meet with the edge of the North Pacific high pressure marked ‘ and push a huge amount of water vapor in the direction of the Korean Peninsula.
The Korea Meteorological Administration believes that there is a high possibility that strong rain clouds will develop as the water vapor pushed in in this way collides with the cold and dry air in the northwest. Although there is a possibility of change, the Korea Meteorological Administration analyzed that there is a possibility of heavy rain in Jeju and southern regions on Friday and Saturday, and throughout the country on the 3rd and Sunday.
As the typhoon approaches, the waves will gradually increase. The risk of swells from the southern seas tomorrow increases, and from the day after tomorrow, waves will rise up to 4 meters high from the southern seas of Jeju. In particular, the Korea Meteorological Administration requested attention not to be damaged by high waves as it entered the period when the water level of the seawater increased due to the moon’s gravitational pull from today.
■ Until the ‘second rainy season’… In addition to worrying about typhoons of up to 200mm until the day after tomorrow,
you must also prepare for heavy rain that will continue until the day after tomorrow. It is the expected precipitation until the day after tomorrow안전놀이터 predicted by the Korea Meteorological Administration,
Areas marked with dark colors are areas where heavy rain is expected. ▲A maximum of 200mm or more in Busan, Ulsan, and the south coast of Gyeongnam ▲50 to a maximum of 150mm in other Yeongnam and Jeonnam ▲30 to 100mm in Chungbuk and Jeonbuk ▲About 20 to 80mm of rain is expected in other central regions.
The point of concentration of particularly strong rain is ▲In the central region, including the metropolitan area, until tonight ▲In the western Honam region, until dawn tomorrow ▲In the eastern part of Honam, Yeongnam, and Jeju, from early morning tomorrow to night, in places with very heavy rainfall of 30 to 60 mm per hour Heavy rain is expected.
For the time being, frequent and strong rains and the possibility of typhoons have been predicted, so special attention is needed to prevent damage.