“House prices will hit a bigger storm in three years.” The numbers brought up by experts are

While the number of unsold houses is gradually disappearing, some are evaluating this as a negative sign. This is due to the analysis that even unsold properties are being purchased as the market predicts a ‘shortage of new homes’ in the future and prices will rise sharply.

According to housing statistics for July 2023 announced by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport on the 31st, the number of unsold houses nationwide was 63,087 households as of the end of July, and has been decreasing for five months. In particular, the decrease in unsold homes in July메이저놀이터 ( -5.0 %) is the largest decrease since March, when the number of unsold homes turned into a decline. Unsold apartments that could not find owners are being sold at a rapid pace. Considering that the sales volume of existing homes has been decreasing for the past two consecutive months, it is interpreted that housing demand is turning to the new sales market, including unsold homes, rather than existing homes.

Park Hap-soo, an adjunct professor at Konkuk University’s Graduate School of Real Estate, said, “Leading indicators of housing supply, such as permits and construction starts, are very sluggish. This is a sign that there will be a significant shortage of housing supply in the future.” “There is a growing demand to purchase newly built apartments, even if they are unsold, before prices soar,” he explained.

In fact, the performance of housing permits and construction starts announced by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport on this day is at a dismal level. As of July this year, the number of housing permits nationwide was 207,278 households, which is 29.9% (88,577) less than the same period last year. Construction started for 53,968 households, which is less than half of the performance in the same period last year (223,082 households). Housing permits and construction starts are leading indicators of housing supply. This is why there are concerns about a sharp increase in housing prices due to a lack of supply two to three years after actual occupancy takes place. In Seoul, where housing demand is the greatest, construction starts amounted to 13,726 households, a 68% decrease compared to the same period last year.

Experts call for improvements in real estate finance, including real estate project financing ( PF ). Jang Jae-hyeon, head of Real Today’s research division, said, “Currently, private housing businesses are unable to obtain permits and start construction because PF loans are blocked,” and added, “Unless PF is resolved, housing supply will continue to be sluggish.” Professor Park also said, “If the government, including the financial authorities, does not resolve this issue now, there will be a gap in occupancy after three years, increasing the possibility of a surge in housing prices.”

The government is also aware of this problem and has recently repeatedly mentioned ‘supply signals’.

Minister of Land, Infrastructure and Transport Won Hee-ryong mentioned the sluggish performance of permits and construction at a recent press conference and said, “Due to the rapid reduction in supply, the public hastily concluded that ‘there is room for a price surge in the future,’ and the government is making fine adjustments to avoid affecting the market situation.” “We will focus on this,” he said.

The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport also emphasized the ‘supply signal’ by unusually releasing part of the meeting of the Housing Supply Innovation Committee held the next day to the media. Minister Won mentioned the PF issue here and said, “This is a situation that clearly requires an early emergency,” and “We will make sure that we provide support at the right time.”

The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport is also emphasizing supply in the public sector. However, in reality, public sales are in a more serious situation. The apartments sold by Korea Land and Housing Corporation ( LH ) this year (excluding pre-subscriptions) are Hwaseong Taean B3 , which was sold last July.The block (688 households) is unique. There were plans to sell three complexes in August, but due to on-site circumstances, only one, Daebang Newlywed Hope Town in Seoul, posted a notice to recruit tenants on the 30th. Even if the planned quantity (4,135 households in 8 complexes) is supplied without a hitch after September, it is only a quarter of last year’s sale quantity (approximately 20,000 households).

Future supply capacity is also uncertain. According to LH , this year’s licensing perfor

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